"China has played its game in the Pacific cleverly. It has employed what is termed as ‘soft power’
to win influence. It has extended the hand of unconditional friendship and one cannot say there has
been coercion or threatens of any sort. That is one of the reasons why its influence has grown so rapidly
over such sweeping swathes of the Pacific under the radar as it were."
to win influence. It has extended the hand of unconditional friendship and one cannot say there has
been coercion or threatens of any sort. That is one of the reasons why its influence has grown so rapidly
over such sweeping swathes of the Pacific under the radar as it were."
That the Pacific islands region will be the theater of action in the next
big global race for geopolitical hegemony is not a question of if as
much as it is of when. And that when may be soon. Once it breaks out,
the race could stay a cold war for a long time with all sorts of
posturing from all parties, or it could escalate into a full blown
battle. No matter how it finally turns out, the next big theatre for the
big powers’ global machinations will be the Pacific and its epicenter
could well be Fiji’s capital, Suva.
At
the turn of the millennium, this twenty first century was touted as the
Century of Asia/Pacific. The promise was great: the Pacific Rim
countries’ confidence brimmed, powered by their blitzing growth rates;
the Asian tigers were on a roll; and the Pacific islands were redrawing
the extent of their sovereign oceanic territories as new mineral
discoveries were being made on land and the seabed.
The
first decade of this century saw sustained forays by the Asian giants
into the Pacific islands region, establishing new outposts in tiny
islands nations, helping build infrastructure and doling out loans and
grants with a firm eye on the vast natural resources that the islands
are thought to possess. All this happened as the Pacific islands’
traditional western world partners were progressively downsizing their
long-held commitments to the islands.
Throughout
the first decade of this century, China had a fairly open run of the
Pacific Oceanic region. It upped its financial assistance and
infrastructure building programmes around the region in schemes and
arrangements that were different from the ones Pacific islands
governments were used to when such assistance came from Western friends.
Pacific
islands leaders spoke approvingly of China’s ‘no strings attached’
approach to aid, in marked contrast to the West’s more structured and
highly conditions-based manner of dealing with assistance programmes.
This was enticement enough for most Pacific islands countries to happily
get into bed with China for several ‘development’ initiatives in return
for poorly documented (at least in the media) concessions in tapping
natural resources and fisheries.
Islands Business
" China has played its game in the Pacific cleverly. It has employed what is commonly termed as ‘soft power’ to win influence. It has extended the hand of unconditional friendship and one cannot say there has been coercion or threats of any sort. That is one of the reasons why its influence has grown so rapidly over such sweeping swathes of the Pacific—under the radar as it were. Meanwhile, the United States was busy with its endless war mongering in the Middle East for the better part of the past two decades[...]
China rebuilt its embassy into a bigger facility in Fiji, the US decided to follow suit almost immediately. Both countries realise the strategic, geopolitical importance of Fiji, just as colonial powers in bygone eras had. "
Simultaneously,
political developments like those in Fiji forced the leadership to
evolve strategies like Fiji’s ‘Look North’ policy where almost every new
realm of economic and developmental activity became closely aligned to
China, Korea and several other countries of the Pacific Rim, gaining
precedence over traditional ties to Australia and New Zealand.
China
has played its game in the Pacific cleverly. It has employed what is
commonly termed as ‘soft power’ to win influence. It has extended the
hand of unconditional friendship and one cannot say there has been
coercion or threats of any sort. That is one of the reasons why its
influence has grown so rapidly over such sweeping swathes of the
Pacific—under the radar as it were.
Meanwhile,
the United States was busy with its endless war mongering in the Middle
East for the better part of the past two decades and all but ignored
China’s growing influence in the Pacific islands region. As if awoken
suddenly from a deep slumber, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made
a knee jerk statement during one of her Pacific whistle stop tours a
few years ago that the US would not “cede” territory to
anybody—obviously implying it wouldn’t take China’s machinations in the
region lying down.
As
the world now progresses towards the middle of this century’s second
decade, it is becoming increasingly apparent that this is the Century of
the Asia/Pacific for many more reasons than those that were touted at
the turn of the millennium. And some of these reasons are undoubtedly a
cause for worry—not just for the region but also for the world.
China
has already begun protesting against the US planned joint exercises in
the Pacific this year that involves some 22 nations including several of
the Pacific Rim, including Australia and New Zealand and even distant
powers like Russia. China has pointedly been excluded from these
exercises that will include a range of nuclear submarines besides other
sophisticated naval hardware and armaments.
China
is also dealing with a number of more regional geopolitical and
territorial problems— particularly the one involving the Philippines in
the South China Sea. The Philippines has a strong US connection for
historical reasons. This is one instance of how these local problems
have the potential to polarise the region across the two superpowers
vying for the region’s favours.
The
joint naval exercises are obviously a bold and firm statement directed
at China that the US wants to make—that it is well and truly means
business in the region. In including the 22 nations in its exercises
including South Korea and Japan, it has thumbed its nose at the Asian
superpower. In fact, the US started this sort of posturing when it
rebuilt its embassy in Fiji’s capital, Suva.
In
ages gone by, kings and emperors announced their hegemony by building
towers and monuments on the territories they conquered. In modern times,
countries can’t conquer and can’t build towers and monuments. Instead,
they build embassies in the countries they want to win favour from to
help them expand their influence. So when China rebuilt its embassy into
a bigger facility in Fiji, the US decided to follow suit almost
immediately.
Both
countries realise the strategic, geopolitical importance of Fiji, just
as colonial powers in bygone eras had. In any aggression that takes
place in the Pacific Ocean in the near future, Fiji will undoubtedly be
catapulted into the centre stage because of this.
What
has begun as benign posturing could quite easily escalate into a cold
war but could a cold war result in a full-blown conflict? Consider this:
the arms industry is the engine of the US economy. With action in the
Middle East all but over, there are few places left for war mongering.
The
Pacific Ocean is an extremely suitable candidate to kick-start the arms
industry and pull the country out of the recession. The development of a
whole new suite of weapons suited for vast stretches of ocean would be a
challenge worth pursuing and investing in. And thanks to the sparseness
of the population, collateral damage would be negligible.
Fanciful
though this may sound, the possibility can scarcely be discounted.
Unfortunately for the Pacific islands and their citizens, they have
already been reduced to pawns. Geopolitics may well grow to be a more
pressing worry than the ravages of climate change.
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