Traditionally, the South Pacific islands have been considered
strategically insignificant. However, the need for resources, and the
geopolitical shift towards Asia-Pacific have prompted nations to realize
that these small island states control large resource-rich ocean areas
and are increasingly geostrategic.
“Five
trillion dollars of commerce rides on the (Asia-Pacific) sea lanes each
year, and you people are sitting right in the middle of it.”
(USPACOM chief Admiral Samuel Locklear, Pacific Island Forum, Cook Islands, 2012.)
From August 27 - 31, leaders from countries as far afield as India, China and the U.S. converged on the tiny Aitutaki Island in the South Pacific to meet members of the 16-country Pacific Island Forum. The need for
resources and geopolitical rebalancing has raised the profile of the
region so much that, for the first time, a U.S. Secretary of State,
Hillary Clinton, attended the Forum — a clear demonstration that the
U.S. is serious about its Pacific “pivot” to Asia.
The reason is
China. In March last year, Clinton told the U.S. Senate’s Foreign
Relations Committee about the region: “Let’s just talk straight
realpolitik. We are in a competition with China. China is in there every
day in every way, trying to figure out how it’s going to come in behind
us, come in under us.”
Last weekend, U.S. Defence Secretary Leon
Panetta passed by New Zealand reinforcing Clinton’s Forum debut, and
China’s Secretary of National People’s Congress, Wu Bangguo returned
from Fiji after inking several economic cooperation pacts with the
military government there including Chinese assistance for cultural and
educational development and teaching the Chinese language in the Fijian
national curriculum.
According to Wu, Sino-Fijian trade was worth $ 172
million last year, up from 34% in the year prior.
India’s
delegation to the Forum was high profile, led by Minister of State for
External Affairs E Ahamed. Apart from resources, and strategic
positioning, the Pacific also controls a relatively large number of
votes in international fora, and India is keen to secure support for its
bid for a seat for the United Nation’s Security Council.
But one
of India’s strongest allies in the region wasn’t invited – Fiji. A key
item on the Forum’s agenda was whether or not to readmit Fiji. Fiji has
been central to Indian interests in the region. Following the 2006 coup,
at the urging of Australia and New Zealand, sanctions were brought
against Fiji and, whilst also suspended from the Forum in 2009. When
India attempted to assist, it was warded off by Canberra. Consequently,
the Fijian regime fell in deep with the remaining alternative active
player in the region, China, one of the biggest investors in the region
thereby receiving generous economic and military cooperation from
Beijing.
The sanctions are of PIF-origin, and as China is not a member
of the Forum, it is not bound to obey. These sanctions, issued by
Australia, New Zealand, and the EU, resulted in the reduction of their
aid assistance, a restriction on visas or transit for any member of the
Fijian regime, and of course on trade.
The welfare of the more
than 300,000 Fijian Indians in Fiji, and more amongst the Pacific
states, is a core interest for India: a united, stable region decreases
complications for region’s bloc support for India.
Fiji’s
continued suspension is fragmenting the region. Isolated, Fiji
shepherded a more consolidated, mineral-rich, Melanesian Spearhead Group
(MSG)- though created in 1983 it remained docile within the Forum
until, following Fiji’s lead, it was formalised in 2007 taking on a
“Look North” foreign policy cline.
This sub-regional grouping includes
the majority ethnic Melanesian nations of Fiji, Solomon Islands, Papua
New Guinea and Vanuatu, and is backed by China (which has built the MSG
secretariat in Vanuatu). In response, last year, as relations continued
to deteriorate, New Zealand by proxy, helped create a competing
“Polynesian Leaders Group.” comprised of majority ethically Polynesian
nations.
This use of racial politics – the attempt to pit against
each other the normally friendly Melanesians and Polynesians – was
spurred and sponsored by Australia and New Zealand because it seemed to
suit their short-term political goals. Instead, it is creating regional
instability, something that ultimately benefits China. China itself is
also bringing volatility to the region, with increasing cases of crime
and drug and human trafficking linked to Chinese nationals.
Australia
and New Zealand can reverse this trend. Just before and since after
this year's Forum, both country’s leaders have started echoing
reintegration of Fiji into regional bloc, lifting sanctions, and also
even further to incentivize positive developments that will lead to
elections in 2014, as promised by the Bainimarama government. The
U.S. understands the implications and, before the Forum, expressed its
expectation that Fiji be reinstated into the Forum. In spite of wide
support, Australia and New Zealand blocked the move.
This raises
questions about the priorities of some policy makers in Australia and
New Zealand. They cite two reasons for the continued marginalisation of
Fiji:
- If Fiji relations are normalised, it may grow as a
more important regional political and economic hub (given its central
location even now most of the regional organisations’ headquarters are
located in Suva), challenging Canberra and Wellington’s role as the
go-to places for Pacific investment and regional insight.
- While
most in Wellington and Canberra undoubtedly value their strong
relationship with the West, some policy-makers seem to be tempering that
with a desire to have stronger economic and—as a result increasingly
political–ties with China.
The second point is raising the
most concerns in global capitals. Recently, former Australian Prime
Minister Paul Keating called on the U.S. to “share” the Pacific with
China. And New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister Bill English declared that
“Australia is a province of China, and New Zealand is a suburb of
Australia.”
While Australia’s stated reason for the exclusion of
Fiji from the Forum is its abolition of democracy, some influential
figures in Canberra seem to have no problem engaging with even more
autocratic governments that, unlike Fiji, have no plans to reintroduce
democracy. In August, for example, Keating justified engagement with
China by writing: “If we are pressed into the notion only democratic
governments are legitimate, our future is limited to action within some
confederation of democracies.”
Australian and New Zealand foreign
policy is going through an internal civil war, with one side willing to
sacrifice values and the trust of its traditional allies for the
perception of economic gain from China (
Wikileaks exposed that Australia pushed Nauru to derecognise Taiwan in favour of Beijing), and the other solidly part of the West.
Myopic
and petty regional policies of Fiji’s marginalisation threw the door
wide open for, and only benefits, China. Challenges to the region are
heightening and so apparent, the U.S. now has to intervene directly to
try to reinvigorate a West-friendly Pacific. Clinton declared the
region “strategically and economically vital and becoming more so,” yet
“big enough for all of us.” But her presence was signal intent to
counter Chinese inroads. Beijing already assumes it has neutered
Australia (and, presumably, doesn’t even bother about New Zealand).
An
editorial in the state-run
People’s Daily—on 30
th
August in response to the US’s aircraft carrier presence at the
Forum—stated that, in the Pacific, “The U.S. may have evaluated that
Australia alone is no longer enough to hold China at bay.”
For
all the inroads created by inept policies in Fiji, Wu is reported to
have taken a swipe at sanctions imposed on Fiji, and with a symbolic
gesture, as guarantor of Fijian national interests, will oppose
countries that are trying to “bully” Fiji. It effectively means China
does not owe Australia and New Zealand any favours for misplacing their
cards. Secondly, as China thinks its interests are linked with those of
the island countries, this gives China opportunities for wide
justification to intervene in South Pacific security – especially given
the expectation afforded to it as a global power.
The divisive
politics on show at the Forum need to stop. A first step, something that
India can assist with, is welcoming Fiji back to the family, and
helping it through its democratisation.
Tevita
Motulalo is a Researcher at Gateway House: Indian Council on Global
Relations. He is the former Editor of the Tonga Chronicle. He is
currently pursuing a Master's Degree in geopolitics at Manipal
University.
Related: The visit to Fiji of H.E. Wu Bangguo - Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National Peoples Congress of the Peoples Republic of China
(video posted below)
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